The Mount Marathon Race on July 4 in Seward swells the number of people in the town of 2,800 to at least a few times that size.

The largest crowds to watch just short of 1,000 race about 5 kilometers up and down to the 3,022-foot point on Mount Marathon have traditionally happened when the race falls on a weekend.

Thanks to the pandemic, Friday’s race — the 97th running — will fall on a weekend for the first time since 2015. The race was first run July 4, 1915, growing out of a wager between two sourdoughs about whether the climb and descent was possible in an hour.

“It’s always fun to have a weekend race, and people make a long weekend out of it,” said Matias Saari, who was hired as race director in the fall of 2019. “The crowds are bigger than normal.

“They’re big anyway, so we’re looking forward to that.”

The junior race of about 150 girls and 150 boys starts at 9 a.m., while the women’s race of about 330 starts at 11:05 a.m. and the men’s race of about 340 starts at 2:05 p.m.

The last time the race was held on a weekend, international trail running stars Emelie Forsberg and Killian Jornet swept the titles, setting new course records in the process.

The performances showed the possibility of new limits in a race that very much had accepted limits a few years prior to that.

In 1981, Bill Spencer set a record of 43 minutes, 21 seconds, in winning the fourth of his record eight titles. That record would stand until Eric Strabel trimmed it to 42:55 in 2013, setting up Jornet’s 41:48 demolition in 2015.

In 1992, Nancy Pease set a record of 50:30 in winning the third of her six titles. That record stood until Forsberg shocked with a 47:48 in 2015, a year in which 2015 Kenai Central grad Allie Ostrander also topped Pease with a 50:28.

On the men’s side, Jornet’s record only lasted a year. David Norris, who grew up in Fairbanks, cut it to 41:26 in winning his first title in 2016. Last year, Norris reset the record again at 40:37 in winning his fifth title in five tries.

The rest of the men’s field has followed the lead of Norris. Of the top 15 times in race history, all have come since 2013 except for Spencer’s 1981 run, which is now 12th.

Forsberg’s record lasted until 2022, when Colorado’s Allie McLaughlin dropped it to 47:09 in her only Mount Marathon appearance to date.

In the women’s race, 11 of the top 14 times have come since 2015. Pease’s record is now the sixth fastest in race history.

Last year, Anchorage’s Klaire Rhodes, 27, of Anchorage won at 49:49, becoming the fourth woman to drop under 50:00.

“It’s not just Mount Marathon, it’s that the sport in general has gotten much more competitive,” said Saari, who won his lone title at 48:00 on a sweltering day in 2009. “There’s more professionalization to trail running.

“Just more talent, more knowledge and training, nutrition, all those things are making a difference.”

Last year, the course was set up for speed and seven age group records fell.

Saari said the potential is there for the course to be fast again.

One big variable is the weather. Saari said the temperatures must be cool, but the lower mountain also must be dry in order to avoid greasy conditions. As of Tuesday, the best weather guess for race day in Seward is cloudy with a chance of rain.

Saari also said the downhill should be fast. He said the top has a snowfield that’s as big as it’s been in 10 years, allowing racers to slide and take a valuable 30 seconds off their feet.

The shale after the snowfield is soft, allowing the racers to softly bound down the mountain. The second half of the downhill takes place on a creek bed that can be wet, rocky and rough.

“I think there were some avalanches that just deposited a lot of gravel and moved it down into the Gut,” Saari said. “It’s actually taken some of the technicality out of it.

“A couple of what used to be 4-foot drops are now 2-foot drops.”

Norris, 34, now lives in Steamboat Springs, Colorado, which has an elevation of 6,732 feet. He’s showed he’s still fit by winning the U.S. Mountain Running Championships in May in New Hampshire and by finishing second this winter in the 50K freestyle at the American Birkebeiner, the largest ski marathon in North America.

A sixth title would put Norris with Ralph Hatch, Sven Johnanson and Brad Precosky. The only one with more is Spencer.

Saari said Mount Marathon can be unpredictable, but Norris is the clear favorite.

“If David is anywhere near running to his peak form, he’s pretty untouchable in the event right now,” Saari said. “Just a powerful climber, great technical skills, just built for this race and has a passion for it.”

Can Norris drop below 40 minutes? Saari said taking 38 seconds off will not be easy.

Last year, Norris got to the top in 29:47, pretty staggering considering Jornet did 31:27. Even that rapid climb means a downhill of at least 10:12 is necessary to break 40 minutes. The fastest Norris had gone downhill is 10:41, while only eight downhill times are faster than 10:12 since 1989.

Saari said Norris has added speedwork on the track and should have a snowfield to help him.

“I think that’s what’s keeping him motivated, to try and knock seconds off his record,” Saari said.

Norris doesn’t have a massive margin for error. Max King, 45, of Bend, Oregon, returns. King and Norris have won all but one of the last eight races and also have five of the top six times in race history.

Jessie McAuley, 25, of British Columbia; Ali Papillon, 20, of South Lake Tahoe, California; and Bodhi Gross, 24, of South Lake Tahoe all return and went under 45 minutes in finishing third through fifth last year. Going under 45 minutes would have won all the races from 1986 to 2003.

On the local front, Lars Arneson, 36, of Anchorage returns. The 2009 graduate of Cook Inlet Academy is a five-time Alaska Mountain Runner Grand Prix Champion and a new father.

“I think he said he’d be happy with top 10,” Saari said. “He’s not realistically shooting to contend, but top 10 in this field is an accomplishment.”

From Seward, James Carlberg, 34; Pyper Dixon, 34; and Erik Johnson, 48, are expected to fight it out for top hometown honors. Last year, Carlberg was 16th, Dixon was 17th and Johnson was 18th.

Chad Resari, 89, of Anchorage, will try to reset his record as the oldest finisher by again completing the “Golden Racer” option, which goes halfway up the mountain.

Saari said Fred Moore, 85, of Seward is on the fence about whether he will try to complete his 55th consecutive race. Saari added that many consecutive races is a record that will never be broken.

Last year, Rhodes and Kendall Kramer, 23, of Fairbanks battled for first place. Saari’s bet is the same will happen this year.

Kramer did the climb in 36:22, while Rhodes was right behind at 36:27. Those times are actually in line with Forsberg’s 36:17.

Rhodes then dominated the downhill.

“Klaire is a much better descender than Kendall,” Saari said. “I think Kendall realizes her tactic. If she tops out together with Klaire again at the top, Klaire is going to run away from her, so Kendall is probably going to push the pace and try to get a real lead by the summit, then try to hang on.”

Kramer, the 2018 girls junior champ, is capable of just that. She defeated Rhodes by 46 seconds at the Robert Spurr Memorial Hill Climb at Bird Ridge in mid-June.

Kramer also had a big final year at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. She was runner-up at the NCAA Division II cross-country running nationals, won the 20K mass start freestyle at the 2025 NCAA Ski Championships and won the 20K classic mass start at the U.S. Cross Country Ski Championships.

Another thing to keep in mind is Kramer will get World Cup skiing starts for Period 1 and could earn a spot on Team USA at the Winter Olympics in Italy in February. An injury on the downhill would not further that goal.

Rhodes was third in April at the Gorge Waterfalls 100K in Oregon, qualifying for September’s World Trail Running Championships in Spain. She will come in with plenty of tuning due to racing, taking 18th at the Broken Arrow Skyrace 46K on June 21 in California.

Rhodes and Kramer are the best climbers in the race. If they falter, a Palmer trio of Meg Inokuma, 45, Christy Marvin, 44, and Denali Strabel, 35, could take advantage.

Strabel is a 2008 Seward High School graduate and three-time junior girls winner. She has 10 top 10s, a PR of 52:00 and her downhill of 11:27 in 2018 is the fastest since 1989.

Inokuma, who holds course records in the Res Pass 50 and 100, has been in the top four in each of her three Mount Marathon appearances. Her PR of 51:59 came last year.

Marvin, a three-time champ, has been in the top three 10 times, one short of the record held by Nina Kemppel, whose nine titles are a race record. Last year Marvin fell out of the top three for the first time, but still ran 53:17, faster than in two of her other races. She’s the only woman to break 60 minutes 11 times in the race.

Saari said to keep an eye on two British Columbia racers — Kalie McCrystal, 37, and Katarina Kuba, 30.

In addition to Strabel, the Kenai Peninsula angle will see two-time champ Hannah Lafleur, 36, of Seward miss her second race in three years due to pregnancy.

Julianne Dickerson, 31, of Anchorage was born and raised in Kenai and has three top 10s and a PR of 54:03. Taylor Deal, 31, of Anchorage graduated from Kenai Central in 2012. She has three top 10s and a PR of 58:17.

“Taylor’s been getting stronger,” Saari said. “She’s running super fast on road courses. This is a little different type of race for her, but she can keep improving. Julianne has been top five before.”

Also in the women’s race, Ellyn Brown, 72, of Anchorage and two-time champ Patti Foldager, 67, of Hope are going for a record 42nd finish. Maureen McRea, 81, of Anchorage tries to stretch her record as the oldest finisher.

The junior girls race took a hit when defending champ Olive Jordan, 15, of Seward dropped out due to illness. The juniors climb to midway on the mountain.

Jordan was fifth on the climb before blitzing everybody on the downhill and road, foreshadowing a freshman campaign for the Seahawks that would see her set the school record at 400 meters.

“I think it’s wide open, actually,” Saari said of the girls race. “Even if Olive was running, there’s like seven or eight girls who could be right there challenging for it.”

Tania Boonstra, 17, of Kenai will look at reclaim her 2023 title. Boonstra, the daughter of four-time men’s champ Todd and sister of 2015 girls champ Riana, was third in 2024 and second in 2022.

Rosie Conway, 17, of Anchorage was in the top three from 2021 to 2023, winning in 2022. She took seventh last year, but won the 1,600 meters in the Division I state track meet this spring.

Wren Spangler, 13, of Palmer was third in 2023 and second in 2024. Hannah Bodkin, 17, of Eagle River led at halfway last year. If Bodkin, who was second in the 300 hurdles at Division I state track, can figure out a better downhill, she’s also a threat.

Vebjorn Flagstad, 17, of Anchorage is the favorite in the boys race. Flagstad, the son of two-time men’s winner Trond, is the fastest returner by more than 2 minutes. He also should be fit after winning at 3,200 in the Division I state track meet.

“He’s got the experience of racing against Coby Marvin and running some really fast times,” Saari said. “He’s got the hunger to break through after being close, but not quite fast enough.

“I think that this is his last junior race, and he wants to go out with a bang.”

The top peninsula returner in the boys race is Luke Elhard, 15, of Seward. Elhard was 13th last year.

Last year marked the first year for a non-binary division in the race. Zoe Dohring, 35, of Anchorage is the top returner in the division.