Mount Spurr’s activity has declined slightly over the last month, and the likelihood of eruption has decreased the Alaska Volcano Observatory said Thursday. Spurr, one of more than 50 active volcanoes in Alaska, is located about 61 miles away from Kenai and 117 miles away from Homer.

The observatory’s message follows a March update that said Spurr’s eruption was “likely, but not certain, to occur within the next few weeks or months.” Spurr has been exhibiting increased activity for around a year and was listed under “yellow” advisory since October. The observatory has said at all times that if an eruption were to occur, there would be noticeable indicators that “may provide days to weeks of additional warning.”

Earthquake activity underneath the volcano is still elevated, the observatory writes, but has declined. Deformation of the ground in the area has also slowed over the last three weeks. Analysis of gases from the volcano, a key metric in assessing its current status, hasn’t been possible for nearly a month because of poor weather. That weather, too, is preempting satellite detection of sulfur dioxide from the volcano.

“The modest changes in monitoring data over the past month suggest that the likelihood of an eruption has decreased, and the inability to measure gas has made it more difficult to assess the current state of the volcano,” the message reads. “However, the current level of unrest remains above background, monitoring data show the presence of magma under the volcano, and an eruption is still possible.”

Fluctuations in volcanic activity can happen during periods of unrest, the message says. Activity could continue to decline without eruption, or the activity could increase again.

Mapping of possible ash cloud trajectories from the observatory has consistently shown a high likelihood of ash traveling north, away from the Kenai Peninsula. Brenda Ahlberg, the Kenai Peninsula Borough’s emergency manager, said last month that if ash were to fall on the peninsula, there would be some hours between the eruption and when ash could arrive. The borough will communicate during any emergency using its KPB Alerts system, which residents can enroll in at info.kpb.us to receive text message alerts.

There are resources at that same site, info.kpb.us, that describe what to do before, during and after an eruption.

In the event of an eruption, you can tune into your local public radio station, KBBI AM 890, or KDLL 91.9 FM for timely emergency updates.

Reach reporter Jake Dye at jacob.dye@peninsulaclarion.com.