Legislator’s plan promises to halve state’s swelling deficit

For 13 months, Sen. Lesil McGuire, R-Anchorage, has been working on a plan to use Permanent Fund earnings to partially balance Alaska’s state budget.

On Tuesday, she finally unveiled the proposal, which could halve the state’s nearly $4 billion deficit in a single year.

“With my plan, you’ll bring in approximately $2 billion, and that will put you on a glidepath (to balancing the budget),” she told members of the Senate State Affairs Committee.

ADVERTISEMENT
0 seconds of 0 secondsVolume 0%
Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcuts
00:00
00:00
00:00
 

She added that “mine is not a whole plan,” and while it would eliminate a substantial chunk of the state’s deficit, additional taxes and further cuts will be needed to balance the annual budget.

“This is only meant to stabilize one part,” she said.

In form and function, McGuire’s plan (formally, Senate Bill 114) resembles the one brought forward by Gov. Bill Walker earlier this year. State revenue commissioner Randy Hoffbeck said the governor’s staff and McGuire’s staff used the same financial models and budget figures, and that any similarities aren’t coincidental.

“Quite frankly, I think all the plans out there have the same essential target in mind,” Hoffbeck said.

The principal difference between the two plans is their emphasis. The governor’s plan is designed to provide $3.3 billion per year to fund state government, but after its first year, Permanent Fund Dividends would be about $500 per person.

Senate Bill 114 has a minimum $1,000 dividend, but it provides only about $2 billion per year for state operations.

If oil averages $56 per barrel this fiscal year (July 1, 2015 through June 30, 2016), the state’s annual deficit will be about $3.5 billion.

Through Monday, oil has averaged $47.08, which puts the deficit at roughly $3.7 billion.

McGuire said her bill “still leaves open the conversation for restructuring the size and cost of government.”

The mechanics of McGuire’s plan are relatively simple. Right now, investment earnings from the $50 billion Permanent Fund end up in the earnings reserve account. That account pays dividends but otherwise accumulates interest and grows. Right now, it contains about $7 billion.

While no one can spend from the Permanent Fund proper without a statewide vote, lawmakers can spend from the earnings reserve with a majority vote.

McGuire’s plan would set up an annual transfer of 5 percent of the Permanent Fund’s value from the earnings reserve to the state budget. If the Permanent Fund’s $50 billion principal account earns more than 5 percent when invested on global markets, the system holds up.

Dividends, instead of coming from the earnings reserve, would come from the state’s annual oil royalty check. Three-quarters of the state’s oil royalties (last year, about $961 million) would be devoted to dividends. The remaining quarter of the state’s oil royalties would go into the Permanent Fund principal.

If implemented this year, McGuire’s bill would result in a dividend of a little over $1,000. If not implemented, the traditional dividend formula (based on the Permanent Fund’s investment returns) is expected to result in a dividend of more than $2,000.

One thousand dollars is “still a big dividend,” McGuire said, adding that in a state whose economy is dependent upon government spending, it’s important to keep the state budget balanced and stable.

“The Permanent Fund Dividend is important,” she said, “but it’s not the only thing that’s important. Even Republicans can say that.”

The Senate State Affairs Committee will meet again on Thursday to hear legal analysis of the governor’s Permanent Fund earnings plan.

On Tuesday, it will hear public testimony on the proposed prison reform bill, and on Tuesday night, starting at 5:30 p.m. in the Capitol, the committee is expected to take public testimony on McGuire’s proposal.

More in News

Nikiski graduates view their slideshow during a commencement ceremony at Nikiski/Middle High School in Nikiski, Alaska, on Monday, May 19, 2025. (Jake Dye/Peninsula Clarion)
‘We need to change the world’

Nikiski Middle/High School graduates 31 on Monday.

State Sen. Lyman Hoffman (D-Bethel) exits the Senate Chambers after the Senate on Tuesday, May 20, 2025, adjourns until next January. (Mark Sabbatini / Juneau Empire)
Alaska Legislature adjourns a day early in ‘smoothest ending in 20 years’ following months of budget battles

Lawmakers speed through final votes on veto override on education funding bill, budget with $1,000 PFD.

Rep. Andi Story (D-Juneau), Rep. Rebecca Himschoot (I-Sitka), and Rep. Sarah Vance (R-Homer) watch the vote tally during a veto override joint session on an education bill Tuesday, May 20, 2025. (Jasz Garrett / Juneau Empire)
Education funding boost stands as lawmakers successfully override Dunleavy veto

Three of the peninsula’s legislators voted to override the veto.

Jeff Dolifka and his children perform the ceremonial ribbon-cutting for the Boys and Girls Clubs of the Kenai Peninsula’s Royce and Melba Roberts Campus in Kenai, Alaska, on Saturday, May 17, 2025. (Jake Dye/Peninsula Clarion)
‘So proud of what we accomplished’

New Boys and Girls Clubs campus dedicated Saturday with a ribbon-cutting and donor recognition.

Gov. Mike Dunleavy speaks to reporters about his decision to veto an education funding bill earlier this session at the Alaska State Capitol on Thursday, April 17, 2025. He vetoed a second such bill on Monday. (Jasz Garrett / Juneau Empire file photo)
Dunleavy vetoes 2nd bill increasing education funding; override vote by legislators likely Tuesday

Bill passed by 48-11 vote — eight more than needed — but same count for override not certain.

Graduate Paxton McKnight speaks during the graduation ceremony at Cook Inlet Academy near Soldotna, Alaska, on Saturday, May 17, 2025. (Jake Dye/Peninsula Clarion)
Beginning a new season of their lives

Cook Inlet Academy graduates seven.

The wreckage of Smokey Bay Air plane N91025 is photographed after residents pulled it from the water before high tide on April 28, 2025, in Nanwalek, Alaska. (Photo courtesy of NTSB)
Preliminary report released on Nanwalek plane crash

The crash killed the pilot and one passenger and left the other passenger seriously injured.

Member Tom Tougas, far right, speaks during a meeting of the Kenai Peninsula Borough Tourism Industry Working Group in Soldotna, Alaska, on Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024. (Jake Dye/Peninsula Clarion)
Tourism working group rejects bed tax, recommends seasonal sales tax adjustment

The document includes a section that says the borough could alternatively leave its tax structure exactly as it is.

The rescued sea otter pup looks at the camera in this undated picture, provided by the Alaska SeaLife Center. (Kaiti Grant/Alaska SeaLife Center)
Stranded otter pup rescued from Homer beach

She is estimated to be around 2 months old and was found alone by concerned beach walkers.

Most Read