Nearly 7 million sockeye salmon are projected to run in Upper Cook Inlet this year, with a forecast from the State Department of Fish and Game saying 4.2 million fish are expected to return to the Kenai River and 1.2 million to the Kasilof.

A run of greater than 6.5 million sockeye in Upper Cook Inlet is “excellent,” the forecast reads. This year’s forecast is greater than the department’s projections from last year — 3.4 million to the Kenai River and 1.1 million to the Kasilof — as well as the observed run of sockeye in Upper Cook Inlet in 2024, reported at 6.6 million.

The forecast runs in Kenai and Kasilof far exceed the department’s escapement goals for both species. Per the department website, the escapement goal for sockeye salmon is between 750,000 and 1.3 million fish on the Kenai River — and has been exceeded for each of the last four years. On the Kasilof, the goal is 140,000-370,000.

While sockeye counts have been exceeding goals on local rivers, counts of Kenai River king salmon have continued to decline in recent years — in 2023 being designated a stock of management concern and in 2024 being the subject of a new stock of concern action plan.

In 2024, fewer than 7,000 king salmon were counted in the Kenai River late run, far short of an escapement goal of 15,000-30,000 fish. Those small runs have triggered complete closures in recent years of both the sport king salmon fisheries and the east side setnet fishery.

The State Board of Fisheries in March will consider a pair of agenda change requests to increase opportunity for commercial sockeye harvest in Upper Cook Inlet. The first would expand a commercial dipnet fishery created by the board in 2024 within the closed ESSN, and the second would allow ESSN fishers to operate using beach seine nets.

For more information about fishing regulations and forecasts, visit adfg.alaska.gov.

Reach reporter Jake Dye at jacob.dye@peninsulaclarion.com.