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The summer's unremittingly wet weather and cool temperatures have borough emergency managers concerned that vulnerable areas on the Kenai Peninsula might be subject to more flooding as Southcentral Alaska heads into fall's normally rainy season.

Flooding, especially in the Seward region, has washed out roads and caused millions of dollars in damage in recent years, and the prospect that similar events could happen again is real, Kenai Peninsula Borough Office of Emergency Management Coordinator Scott Walden said Monday.

"There is concern," Walden said. "In the Seward area there has been heavy gravel buildup in streams. That's been a chronic issue since May 2007. There's less capacity for handling runoff. Streams are a lot shallower, and they want to change direction."

Walden said the borough was working with the National Weather Service preparing storm-ready presentations to be delivered in schools early this fall. Meanwhile, other small projects being planned in concert with the Seward-Bear Creek Flood Service Area will focus on the confluence of small streams where accumulated gravel can be mucked out, providing a short-term solution.

Admittedly a Band-Aid, the minor dredging will be good for a few weeks, perhaps, before runoff fills them back in, Walden said.

Some preparations are under way, putting in place a reliable notification process and getting information out through the service area flood board. The borough has several hundred feet of small water-diversion barriers that can be filled with gravel and put where needed to change the direction of water flow, such as diverting water from highways, he said.

The borough, Walden added, is working with the service area board, the Road Service Area (RSA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), erosion control experts and others.

"It never hurts to prepare for the fall rainy season," said Larry Rundquist, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Anchorage. "The Kenai Peninsula is very close to the Gulf of Alaska that gets a lot of fall events that pour a lot of rain onto the peninsula."

But while the summer has certainly been wet, it isn't necessarily true that the fall will be rainier than normal, Rundquist said. There are some mitigating factors. For instance, because it has been generally cool, there may be somewhat less glacial melt. Thus, the reduced melt and added rain may be a wash in the long run.

That, however, remains to be seen, he said.

Long-range climate predictions on the order of one to three months produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service suggest August may be a little cooler than normal, but that is little surprise considering this summer in general.

Those outlooks, Rundquist said, are based on computer models that include large oceanic-atmospheric climate events in the Pacific Ocean like El Nino and La Nina that impact weather across large portions of the Earth's surface.

Shorter forecast windows of six to 10 and eight to 14 days used by the NWS appear to show August tending toward the drier side, Rundquist said, which would be welcome relief to soggy residents of the borough.

Then again, the models, dependent as they are on so many factors, aren't entirely reliable.

"Sometimes the weather is so funky the models can show different results," he said.

At that point, forecasters make educated guesses.

With all that in mind, Walden said the borough was taking several steps in case rainfall leads to flooding this fall. Arrangements have been made with contractors for flood response work.

The borough also hopes to contract for dredging gravel from major streams, mostly in the Seward area, to open channels 8 feet deep and 30 feet wide and increase their capacity to handle runoff.

Some work, however, is not likely to be done until next spring, he said.

While the borough is doing what it can to be ready this fall, flood preparation also is the responsibility of the citizens, Walden said.

"Generally, if you live in a flood area, be prepared. Make sure homes are prepared for a high-water event. Know your insurance coverage. Know what your responsibility is as a landowner," he said.

The borough's first priority is to life and safety, Walden said. Then comes publicly owned infrastructure, such as roads and buildings. Last on the priority list is rescuing private property.

"That's not to say we will leave anybody hanging, but we do have parameters we must follow," he said.

The borough has submitted a letter to FEMA expressing its intent to apply for $20 million in disaster funding to be used to take major preventative measures before floods occur, Walden said. Such preparations could be expensive.

As much as 500,000 cubic yards of gravel may have to be removed from sections of major rivers and streams, he said. Estimates put the cost of moving that material at about $10 a cubic yard.

"It's not an easy fix financially for the borough or the state," he said.

Even a major excavation won't last forever.

"The work is repetitive," Walden said. "But once the heavy work is done, it is easier to create a maintenance program. But it is still an expensive prospect."

The borough, he said, was keeping state legislators informed on a weekly basis, and across the peninsula, borough officials are staying in close contact with U.S. Geological Survey personnel regarding flood gauges and making sure they are working properly.

There will be a focus on public education, he said.

Hal Spence can be reached at hspence@ptialaska.net.