13.0°

State fisheries biologists are predicting a Cook Inlet salmon haul of about 3 million fish this coming summer; about 900,000 fish lower the 20-year average.

"It should be about the same as last year, which wasn't all that good for a lot of people," said Area Management Biologist Jeff Fox, who said there would be enough fish to meet escapement goals in the rivers, but the commercial harvest will "probably pay the bills."

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game's Division of Commercial Fisheries issued a news release Jan. 26 laying out the 2009 Upper Cook Inlet sockeye salmon forecast. Fox, and Area Management Biologist Pat Shields, along with Research Project Leader Mark Willette, predicted a total run of 4.3 million (within a range of 1 million to 7.6 million). With an escapement estimated at 1.3 million, that leaves an estimated harvest of 3 million sockeye.

The biologists said the forecasted harvest was about 900,000 fish below the 20-year average harvest of 3.9 million caught by all user groups.

The biologists forecast a sockeye salmon run for the Kenai River of about 2.4 million, or 27 percent less than the 20-year average run of 3.4 million. However, the press release indicated there is considerable uncertainty in the 2009 Kenai River sockeye salmon run forecast.

According to the data, about 61 percent of the Kenai River run would be made up of "1.3 age" fish, which is a statistical way of measuring years in cold winter waters, in this case one year in the stream and three in the ocean, making these 4-year-old salmon. Those are the progeny of an over-escapement into the Kenai River in 2004.

A recent report produced by the department states that overescapement often results in reduced returns in succeeding years for several reasons. For one thing, waves of spawning salmon disturb the eggs of earlier arrivals and those embryos often die from mechanical shock or predation. High density in spawning beds can cause oxygen depravation and increases in fungus and parasite infestations.

Later, lakes lack sufficient food to support all the fry. What fry there are eat everything up, leaving little or nothing for successive generations, Fox said. The Kenai River is in the middle of returns generated during a five-year stretch of over-escapement, he added.

"We've had two years already. We have three more to go," he said.

Nevertheless, salmon will return to Cook Inlet in a few months, and commercial, sport, and subsistence fishers will be gearing up to catch their shares.

The preliminary 2009 Lower Cook Inlet commercial salmon harvest forecast issued Jan. 23, suggested a total salmon harvest (all five species) of just over 1.36 million fish.

Broken down, forecasters predicted about 1,200 chinook, 304,600 sockeye, 13,500 coho, 997,800 pink and 45,400 chum salmon.

Statewide, Alaska commercial fishers hauled in more than 146 million salmon during the 2008 season, weighing in at more than 709 million pounds. All that translated to an estimated ex-vessel value of $409.3 million.

In Cook Inlet, fishers took in 13,000 chinook valued at $523,000, 2.77 million sockeye, valued at more than $18.1 million, 172,000 coho worth $480,000, 674,000 pink salmon bringing in $476,000 and 227,000 chum at $866,000.

Smaller returns or not, a lingering question for many commercial fishers is where fuel prices will be come the season. Drew Sparlin, president of the United Cook Inlet Drift Association, said that if current prices translate to marine fuels, fishers should see costs a third less than last year.

"That would be a benefit, no doubt," he said. "Fuel is a very significant cost. As harvesters, we must be cautious how money is spent, and that does affect the way we fish."

Sparlin noted the relatively low predicted returns.

"We are hoping they're wrong. There have been surprises before," he said. "But we all recognize the science is pretty darned good and they have a better handle on making projections these days than they did in older years."

Fishers, he said, need to proceed as if the predictions are fairly close. Consequently, he added, there may be less fishing time and less product.

2009 Upper Cook Inlet fisheries forecast

According to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, the forecast runs for individual freshwater systems are as follows:

System Run Escapement Goal Range

Crescent River 92,000 30,000-70,000

Fish Creek 80,000 20,000-70,000

Kasilof River 822,000 150,000-250-000

Kenai River 2,441,000 750,000-950,000

Susitna River 669,000 90,000-160,000

Minor Systems 193,000 N/A