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In the coming years, Alaska's population is in for a serious shakeup: workplaces will become more racially diverse, young people will gradually edge out their seniors and the number of women will begin to creep up on the larger proportion of males, said state Department of Labor economist Neal Fried.

To draw his conclusion regarding race, Fried took a look at Anchorage's school population, arguing that this is a great indicator of future workforce diversity because many of these children will go on to enter the work in Anchorage when they grow up.

Caucasians currently make up 48 percent of the city's school children, whereas Asians and Pacific Islanders account for 14 percent, according to the Anchorage School District. Black students account for 6 percent, while Hispanic and Alaskan Native students account for 10 percent and 9 percent, respectively. Some 13 percent of students reported racial backgrounds encompassing more than one group.

In 2008, more of Alaska's population, 34 percent, was derived from those who were born here, Fried said. In 1970, that number was 21 percent.

At a recent luncheon held by the Anchorage Chamber of Commerce, Fried also said Anchorage's overall diversity has been increasing in recent years. In 1960, only 8 percent of Anchorage's population was non-white. Since then, that number has steadily increased; in 1980, that number was 16 percent. In 2000 it was 28 percent, and in 2008 it reached 30 percent.

Anchorage also is likely to see increased gender diversity as women are steadily closing gap in the city's disproportionately male populace, Fried said. This year, males are predicted to outnumber females by 101.4 for every 100 females, Fried said. In 2030, Fried predicts males will only outnumber females by 100.6 to every 100 females.

Other trends Fried examined at the luncheon include age. Fried said the proportion of young people within Anchorage is greater than that of the country as a whole.

Fried said 32 percent of Anchorage residents are 19 years old or younger, compared to the overall U.S. population, 27 percent fit into that age group. Anchorage beats out the national proportion by a percent or two in every age category until the 45- to 59-year-old range, at which point the city breaks even with the U.S. average.

Within the 60 and older category, Anchorage actually falls behind the rest of the country, with only 10 percent of the city's population matching that range, 7 percentage points below the national proportion.

Fried is not the only economics expert predicting trends for the new year; over the last month, a bevy of forecasts and predictions have been made regarding the local economy.

Bill Popp, president and CEO of the Anchorage Alaska Economic Development Corp., predicted at his organization's forecast event that Anchorage would lose about 1,200 jobs this year, a net loss of 0.8 percent compared to last year.

That being said, however, the group's report also states that 2010 should be the year Anchorage bottoms out in terms of job losses, meaning the city may soon recover from the relatively minor effects of the national recession.

Although Popp predicts the construction and hospitality industries will lose big this year, at 400 and 500 jobs being lost, respectively, some industries are expected to see decent gains. In particular, the health care sector is expected to gain 200 jobs.

The oil and gas industries are expected to remain flat.

Though Popp's presentation seemed mostly gloomy, he is upbeat about the future, and even with 2010's job losses he still classifies the economy as "flat," meaning the losses aren't enough to substantially drag the economy down.

"It shouldn't be long before flat is yesterday's good," he said.

He also said that while businesses are negative in regard to the overall economy, they are positive about their own prospects.

In a contract with the McDowell Group, an Alaska research and consulting firm, AEDC conducted a survey of 213 Anchorage businesses to determine how confident they were regarding the economy.

The "Business Confidence Index," an overall rating of this confidence level averaged among all of the respondents' answers, is 53.6 for this year. An index between 51 and 100 indicates a positive outlook, where less than 50 would denote a negative outlook.

The index for the Anchorage economy as a whole is 46.7, a definite gain from last year's 44.9 rating. The index for net profit is 58, compared to 54.6 last year.

The only index that dropped was that of employment, with the rating being 53 this year and 53.8 last year.

Sean Manget can be reached at sean.manget.@alaskajournal.com.